Well we are in a crucial phase of countdown to elections 2014 in India. One section in India is looking for anti-Congress rule whilst the others believe that NaMo and NaMonia will sweep away the polls. Some more are still looking at a potential 3rd front [and a new contender for the same is AAP in isolation]
As we are all aware, the 3rd front is a distinct dream and will not materialize in the near term, especially with the credentials of people involved in such a dream. AAP can be a very formidable force but it is in very nascent stages and it is impossible for them to sweep the polls this time at least. So it boils down to the 2 major fronts i.e. the Congress-led UPA force and BJP-led NDA force. That is all that elections 2014 will be all about.
My primary interests are the capital markets in India and business sentiment but those sentiments definitely are looking for clarity in political leadership in any country and hence I would run this piece till we have the final results in place. The observations, recommendations made on this blog will be purely my personal views and I do not represent any political party or affiliations.
Since India is a land of Vedic knowledge, I will first begin with an astrological perspective with my limited knowledge of Vedic Astrology. In 2013, the major planet Jupiter is transiting through Gemini, an Air Sign with ample room for confusing communication in the world overall. This transit will go till June 2014 after which Jupiter will move into the Water Sign of Cancer. Towards the end of 2014, Saturn will move from the Air Sign of Libra to the Water Sign of Scorpio. So what are the implications of these 2 findings for the next Prime Minister of India? Cancer is ruled by Moon. The next leader of India will in all likelihood be a hard-headed person to the extent that at times may be eccentric. Overall, Cancer signifies a no-nonsense attitude towards his/her subjects. Scorpio is again a water sign, indicating a person with stubborn attitude, and somebody with the capability to sting opposition left, right and centre. To summarize, the new leadership in 2014 in India will be a group of leaders with minimal coalition members, and a slightly hard-line approach towards administration and ruling. '
Since the UPA government is in power right now, let us quickly do their SWOT analysis.
First part, this party is led by the Gandhi family predominantly and has a lot of momentum behind it. With due credit to Manmohan Singh and P Chidambaram, they did usher in a lot of positive reforms into India despite so many external challenges and having to appease so many stakeholders. However, we must also remmeber that Manmohan Singh is pretty old and won't be able to take on the mantle further. He has personally been very fiery in his first stint as finance minister in the 1990s and in UPA-1/2 regime, he has managed to pass a lot of good reforms with the help of P Chidambaram.
Whilst his silence on many issues has become the butt of jokes in social media, fact is that his hands are tied up and he has not risen up to the challenge to speak out. P Chidambaram is a very well educated person and has been extremely business-friendly with his economic policies. Certain deteriorating economic factors are simply beyond anybody's control as they are governed by externalities. However, 3 major points go against P Chidambaram in the current state of affairs
1. Highly inflationary policies as far as the common man is concerned [The benefits accrue to a few super-rich who were by and large indifferent anyways]
2. Lots of abuse of power and ensuring personal benefits to family members to thrive [most important to note are the rise of India Bulls and the Maxis-Aircel deal] One can bring in a lot of counter-arguments and invoke legal mechanisms that will ensure that arguments, counter-arguments keep moving around in a vicious circle and go on forever. That he is extremely corrupt and does things under a very nice veil with glib talking is an open secret.
3. He creates an illusion of creating benefits for the middle class and needy but then ensures that subsequent addendum to the policies offset all of that and further suck out sums from the wallet is also a known thing.
On balance of all factors put together, from the UPA perspective, he is the most suitable Prime Ministerial candidate. Rahul Gandhi as a PM candidate is sure short and fast forward suicide for Congress. Rahul Gandhi just like many others brought in some anticipation of positive expectations from the people. However, he simply does not have the abilities nor the conviction to lead India. Thanks to the company of his mentor, he has developed a chronic foot in the mouth disease. He is simply not articulate enough to address the business community and has 0 knowledge of challenges in India at grass-root levels.
The Congress nevertheless has 3 musketeers from the young brigade i.e. Jyotirao Scindia, Sachin Pilot and Milind Deora. All are well educated, again very friendly with business communities and have ushered some positive changes with their limited experience and time in portfolios allotted to them. The choice of Defence Ministers though has been pathetic in the UPA regime over the last 8 years and so is the case with Home Ministers. 2 ominous elements that have worsened the Congress stand in India are Kapil Sibal and Veerappan Moily. Kapil Sibal has made a joke out of the important aspect of education in India. Veerappan Moily has acknowledged that India is moving towards 90% dependence on oil imports but has not taken any positive steps that will have longer term positive impact on the CAD.
The alliance with NCP and food ministry with Sharad Pawar has worsened the situation of both farmers and end consumers in India [farmers have not become richer despite high consumer prices whilst all the bumper harvests at different times have not made any difference to the common man's expenses] On balance we still ensure that a lot of food is wasted in India and then subsequently import a lot of agricultural produce and it is again an open secret that Sharad Pawar makes money both ways [and not to forget all the proceeds from cricket and real estate!]
Corruption undoubtedly has been part and parcel with politics right throughout and that is the case in all economies. The corruption during the UPA regime has been as inflationary as the economy has been. The government has a lot to answer but we must not forget of one critical element; with media proliferation over the last 5 years, it is just that the extent of reporting that has gone up compared to the past. Am I advocating this corruption. No Im just saying that we need to take things with a pinch of salt. Action needs to be taken and the government has fallen short of taking appropriate actions and mitigating steps.
To summarize, if the Congress wants to get UPA-3 in power the following steps are critical
1. P. Chidambaram as the Prime Minister
2. Rahul Gandhi out from the parliament affairs [and perhaps follow his mom's footsteps to handle the remote control]
3. Greater role for the 3 musketeers, Jyotirao Scindia, Sachin Pilot and Milind Deora
4. Stonewall Digvijay Singh, Veerappan Moily and Sharad Pawar
5. Strike chords with the real youth, control inflation and improve the business climate of India.
Now we come to the new force that is fast picking momentum, the BJP-led NDA
I think that party internally has sent down some strong messages and is trying to ride the Narendra Modi wave and gain anti-incumbency mileage. Things that have been going right for Narendra Modi
1. He has adopted social media platforms and has done well to connect with people.
2. He understands the challenges of people at grassroot levels and brings policies accordingly
3. He understands the importance of thriving business communities for economic progress
4. Extremely good in striking a chord with the masses with his oratory skills.
5. Sound administrator as reflected in Gujarat [one must note that Modi has instilled the doctrine of Employee Training and Development in the bureacratic machinery of Gujarat just as corporates would do to their employees]
A lot is spoken about Modi's role in Godhra riots and it may have been the case that some of them are true. It is not surprising as he was led by LK Advani who was blatantly responsible for the 1993 communal riots and this aspect is a part of the DNA of BJP. However, let us not forget that Congress too has had a role in creating communal disharmony directly or indirectly time and again. What actually stands out for Gujarat is that post-Godhra, no riots have taken place in Gujarat in grand scale. Surat has become plague free. Mundhra port came up and displaced Kandla big time [an achievement of Adani group but could not have been possible without government assistance]. When the Singur issue came up in Bengal for Tata Motors, the transition to Gujarat was smooth.
On the other hand, he has been just sticking to the anti-Congress factor which is a good start but then he also needs to spell out his game plan [may not be in full detail but a basic blue-print nevertheless] In the rise of creating NaMo waves, he still has been running a lone crusader's role. He displaced LK Advani fine but still, there are no visible signs of good camaraderie and teamwork in any press conference and rallies so far. One must remember that there is only so much that he can do as an individual. People must see that the party comes together as one unit especially the central think tank of Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley Yashwant Sinha and now Subramaniam Swamy. This is also a point where there are some kinks for the NDA force. We must also not forget that just as is the case with Congress, BJP also has a Gandhi heir in the form of Varun Gandhi. Again a brat with limited thinking capacity and a chronic verbal diarrhea prone politician. He needs to be shunted out too and the mistakes of the past must not be repeated at all [for instance Shatrughan Sinha as Shipping Minister, Shahnawaz Hussain as Aviation Minister etc] The educated class do not have ghajini memory always!!!
The second and third rung of administrators seem largely absent or incompetent. Moreover, if NDA vies for power in centre, the Lokayukta in Gujarat is going to be very critical. Other wise it is like pointing fingers on someone for corruption whilst they themselves are in the same boat. Moreover, their once strong holding in Karnataka has seen the power of Lokayukta and hence people at large want to see a chorus and similarity - not differences.
Subramanium Swamy's joining forces with BJP is a very big positive. Whilst he himself maybe looking for the PM's post, IMHO, he is best suited to be the next FM for India. The RBI Governor in Raghuram and FM in Swamy will be a very potent combination for the business with Narendra Modi at the helm. However, without visible signs of unity, a united voice and a distinct action plan, the chances of NDA at the centre may get thwarted as anti-Congress can only be the starting point not the end. Moreover, they need to ensure buy-in from bureaucrats and it would be ideal if BJP can bring AAP into its armour.
To summarize, as things stand today, there are still probabilities
As on 12th August 2013, my probability estimate is as follows
Objective Analysis
UPA-3: 50% Probability
NDA: 50% Probability
3rd Front: Zero Probability
Clear Single Majority Result Probability: 10%
Which party will gain power: The one that has maximum youth power and educated / street smart people. Election 2014 will prove that vote-bank politics won't sustain and that is something I am certain about.
Clock is ticking tick-tock-tick-tock
As we are all aware, the 3rd front is a distinct dream and will not materialize in the near term, especially with the credentials of people involved in such a dream. AAP can be a very formidable force but it is in very nascent stages and it is impossible for them to sweep the polls this time at least. So it boils down to the 2 major fronts i.e. the Congress-led UPA force and BJP-led NDA force. That is all that elections 2014 will be all about.
My primary interests are the capital markets in India and business sentiment but those sentiments definitely are looking for clarity in political leadership in any country and hence I would run this piece till we have the final results in place. The observations, recommendations made on this blog will be purely my personal views and I do not represent any political party or affiliations.
Since India is a land of Vedic knowledge, I will first begin with an astrological perspective with my limited knowledge of Vedic Astrology. In 2013, the major planet Jupiter is transiting through Gemini, an Air Sign with ample room for confusing communication in the world overall. This transit will go till June 2014 after which Jupiter will move into the Water Sign of Cancer. Towards the end of 2014, Saturn will move from the Air Sign of Libra to the Water Sign of Scorpio. So what are the implications of these 2 findings for the next Prime Minister of India? Cancer is ruled by Moon. The next leader of India will in all likelihood be a hard-headed person to the extent that at times may be eccentric. Overall, Cancer signifies a no-nonsense attitude towards his/her subjects. Scorpio is again a water sign, indicating a person with stubborn attitude, and somebody with the capability to sting opposition left, right and centre. To summarize, the new leadership in 2014 in India will be a group of leaders with minimal coalition members, and a slightly hard-line approach towards administration and ruling. '
Since the UPA government is in power right now, let us quickly do their SWOT analysis.
First part, this party is led by the Gandhi family predominantly and has a lot of momentum behind it. With due credit to Manmohan Singh and P Chidambaram, they did usher in a lot of positive reforms into India despite so many external challenges and having to appease so many stakeholders. However, we must also remmeber that Manmohan Singh is pretty old and won't be able to take on the mantle further. He has personally been very fiery in his first stint as finance minister in the 1990s and in UPA-1/2 regime, he has managed to pass a lot of good reforms with the help of P Chidambaram.
Whilst his silence on many issues has become the butt of jokes in social media, fact is that his hands are tied up and he has not risen up to the challenge to speak out. P Chidambaram is a very well educated person and has been extremely business-friendly with his economic policies. Certain deteriorating economic factors are simply beyond anybody's control as they are governed by externalities. However, 3 major points go against P Chidambaram in the current state of affairs
1. Highly inflationary policies as far as the common man is concerned [The benefits accrue to a few super-rich who were by and large indifferent anyways]
2. Lots of abuse of power and ensuring personal benefits to family members to thrive [most important to note are the rise of India Bulls and the Maxis-Aircel deal] One can bring in a lot of counter-arguments and invoke legal mechanisms that will ensure that arguments, counter-arguments keep moving around in a vicious circle and go on forever. That he is extremely corrupt and does things under a very nice veil with glib talking is an open secret.
3. He creates an illusion of creating benefits for the middle class and needy but then ensures that subsequent addendum to the policies offset all of that and further suck out sums from the wallet is also a known thing.
On balance of all factors put together, from the UPA perspective, he is the most suitable Prime Ministerial candidate. Rahul Gandhi as a PM candidate is sure short and fast forward suicide for Congress. Rahul Gandhi just like many others brought in some anticipation of positive expectations from the people. However, he simply does not have the abilities nor the conviction to lead India. Thanks to the company of his mentor, he has developed a chronic foot in the mouth disease. He is simply not articulate enough to address the business community and has 0 knowledge of challenges in India at grass-root levels.
The Congress nevertheless has 3 musketeers from the young brigade i.e. Jyotirao Scindia, Sachin Pilot and Milind Deora. All are well educated, again very friendly with business communities and have ushered some positive changes with their limited experience and time in portfolios allotted to them. The choice of Defence Ministers though has been pathetic in the UPA regime over the last 8 years and so is the case with Home Ministers. 2 ominous elements that have worsened the Congress stand in India are Kapil Sibal and Veerappan Moily. Kapil Sibal has made a joke out of the important aspect of education in India. Veerappan Moily has acknowledged that India is moving towards 90% dependence on oil imports but has not taken any positive steps that will have longer term positive impact on the CAD.
The alliance with NCP and food ministry with Sharad Pawar has worsened the situation of both farmers and end consumers in India [farmers have not become richer despite high consumer prices whilst all the bumper harvests at different times have not made any difference to the common man's expenses] On balance we still ensure that a lot of food is wasted in India and then subsequently import a lot of agricultural produce and it is again an open secret that Sharad Pawar makes money both ways [and not to forget all the proceeds from cricket and real estate!]
Corruption undoubtedly has been part and parcel with politics right throughout and that is the case in all economies. The corruption during the UPA regime has been as inflationary as the economy has been. The government has a lot to answer but we must not forget of one critical element; with media proliferation over the last 5 years, it is just that the extent of reporting that has gone up compared to the past. Am I advocating this corruption. No Im just saying that we need to take things with a pinch of salt. Action needs to be taken and the government has fallen short of taking appropriate actions and mitigating steps.
To summarize, if the Congress wants to get UPA-3 in power the following steps are critical
1. P. Chidambaram as the Prime Minister
2. Rahul Gandhi out from the parliament affairs [and perhaps follow his mom's footsteps to handle the remote control]
3. Greater role for the 3 musketeers, Jyotirao Scindia, Sachin Pilot and Milind Deora
4. Stonewall Digvijay Singh, Veerappan Moily and Sharad Pawar
5. Strike chords with the real youth, control inflation and improve the business climate of India.
Now we come to the new force that is fast picking momentum, the BJP-led NDA
I think that party internally has sent down some strong messages and is trying to ride the Narendra Modi wave and gain anti-incumbency mileage. Things that have been going right for Narendra Modi
1. He has adopted social media platforms and has done well to connect with people.
2. He understands the challenges of people at grassroot levels and brings policies accordingly
3. He understands the importance of thriving business communities for economic progress
4. Extremely good in striking a chord with the masses with his oratory skills.
5. Sound administrator as reflected in Gujarat [one must note that Modi has instilled the doctrine of Employee Training and Development in the bureacratic machinery of Gujarat just as corporates would do to their employees]
A lot is spoken about Modi's role in Godhra riots and it may have been the case that some of them are true. It is not surprising as he was led by LK Advani who was blatantly responsible for the 1993 communal riots and this aspect is a part of the DNA of BJP. However, let us not forget that Congress too has had a role in creating communal disharmony directly or indirectly time and again. What actually stands out for Gujarat is that post-Godhra, no riots have taken place in Gujarat in grand scale. Surat has become plague free. Mundhra port came up and displaced Kandla big time [an achievement of Adani group but could not have been possible without government assistance]. When the Singur issue came up in Bengal for Tata Motors, the transition to Gujarat was smooth.
On the other hand, he has been just sticking to the anti-Congress factor which is a good start but then he also needs to spell out his game plan [may not be in full detail but a basic blue-print nevertheless] In the rise of creating NaMo waves, he still has been running a lone crusader's role. He displaced LK Advani fine but still, there are no visible signs of good camaraderie and teamwork in any press conference and rallies so far. One must remember that there is only so much that he can do as an individual. People must see that the party comes together as one unit especially the central think tank of Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley Yashwant Sinha and now Subramaniam Swamy. This is also a point where there are some kinks for the NDA force. We must also not forget that just as is the case with Congress, BJP also has a Gandhi heir in the form of Varun Gandhi. Again a brat with limited thinking capacity and a chronic verbal diarrhea prone politician. He needs to be shunted out too and the mistakes of the past must not be repeated at all [for instance Shatrughan Sinha as Shipping Minister, Shahnawaz Hussain as Aviation Minister etc] The educated class do not have ghajini memory always!!!
The second and third rung of administrators seem largely absent or incompetent. Moreover, if NDA vies for power in centre, the Lokayukta in Gujarat is going to be very critical. Other wise it is like pointing fingers on someone for corruption whilst they themselves are in the same boat. Moreover, their once strong holding in Karnataka has seen the power of Lokayukta and hence people at large want to see a chorus and similarity - not differences.
Subramanium Swamy's joining forces with BJP is a very big positive. Whilst he himself maybe looking for the PM's post, IMHO, he is best suited to be the next FM for India. The RBI Governor in Raghuram and FM in Swamy will be a very potent combination for the business with Narendra Modi at the helm. However, without visible signs of unity, a united voice and a distinct action plan, the chances of NDA at the centre may get thwarted as anti-Congress can only be the starting point not the end. Moreover, they need to ensure buy-in from bureaucrats and it would be ideal if BJP can bring AAP into its armour.
To summarize, as things stand today, there are still probabilities
As on 12th August 2013, my probability estimate is as follows
Objective Analysis
UPA-3: 50% Probability
NDA: 50% Probability
3rd Front: Zero Probability
Clear Single Majority Result Probability: 10%
Which party will gain power: The one that has maximum youth power and educated / street smart people. Election 2014 will prove that vote-bank politics won't sustain and that is something I am certain about.
Clock is ticking tick-tock-tick-tock
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