Well from 12th August '13 till date, there have been quite a few headlines so lets review how things stand
The recipe for disaster has been spelt by the current PM, MMS; one thing is very very clear - if Rahul Gandhi is announced as the PM, candidate, UPA-3 will be a distant dream. He has disappointed the youth brigade and has already demonstrated his incompetence in the CII meet. His attempt to connect with people of UP also have been flopshows. Indian youth has changed, preferences have changed and it seems like Congress has still not woken up to that fact. If it wants to avoid a political disaster, Rahul Gandhi needs to step aside and follow his mother's footsteps.
Foot in the mouth disease has grappled Congress leaders big time. Just to highlight a few issues
Mr. Oily [Veerappan Moily] acknowledged challenges of oil imports. He went on to suggest that petrol pumps should be closed from 8pm to 8am. BS - shot down. About conservation of fuel by MPs, MLAs and their convoys, no answers. [and as anticipated, the BJP who slams every problem on UPA or the Left Groups chose to stay mum. Obviously, they also enjoy the benefits with their MP/MLA status. Well we have no shortages of hypocrites in India!]
Mr. Antony is completely clueless about whats happening at the borders. We fully understand that you are clueless but please stop shooting from the hip! Right from Nehru days, our babus have failed to acknowledge the independent talents of our armed forces. Just allow them some autonomy to resolve issues and they will do a fantastic job. If the army was given a free hand to handle the Pakistan issue instead of interference by Nehru, we would not have Pakistan / JnK challenges today.
Mr. Sharad Pawar acknowledges that we have about INR 44000 crores worth of food wastage due to improper storage facilities. That acknowledgement itself is proof of his incompetence. If in 2 terms as food and agriculture minister, you could not reduce at least half of this wastage, then you have no right to continue.
Mr. Chidambaram went on an overdrive last week, talking about various challenges. His claim is that our external debt is going to be capped at 4.8% of GDP. Outrageous; all that UPA-2 has been doing is increasing expenditure big time and ballooning government expenses. Over and above that, the Food Security Bill has come through, subsidies on mobiles, tablets etc etc are being doled out [pre-election bribes to the voters, we know] On the currency front, the only thing that is harped about is Gold. The only thing that has been spoken about is that Iran accepts payments in Rupees. BRICS bank is also fine but the first and foremost thing we need to do is agree on Currency Swaps with our major partners. It is surprising to see that a country like Japan comes back to India and agrees to treble the Currency Swap window to USD 50 Billion worth of payments.
Ideally, India should be reaching out to high trade partners like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, South Africa and create Currency Swap windows. We can accept Thai Bahts for our payments and they can accept Indian Rupees. Similarly for Chinese Remnibi, Malaysian Rinngits, South African Rands etc. By doing this, we emerging nations are internally ring-fencing ourselves against dollar strength against which all these countries are suffering as well. The whole thing boils down to 'Who will bell the cat?'
I think this is the right time to do it with the new RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. Let us wait till his announcements on 20th September in his first press conference.
However, from an elections perspective, Chidambaram [and Cngress] has played a master stroke this time. Banks and business houses welcome the new RBI chief. On the other hand with more and more subsidies being doled out, the rural and lower income groups have been targeted. As usual, the hope is that the educated urban/middle class does not vote in large numbers.
Now the other side of the fence
Narendra Modi has been slowly gaining momentum and as most reporters have rightly reported, vast majority of Indians are pro-Modi anti-BJP. The VHP tried to create a stir in Varanasi but couldn't gather scream. This is not 1993 and large swings on the basis of Hindutva won't work.
Modi's work in Gujarat is exemplary; Mundra port came up as a leading shipping terminal de-congesting Nhava Sheva and Mumbai. Over a period of time, over 40% of exports from West, Central and North India will be routed through Mundra port. Without the able guidance and empowerment by Modi, this would not have been possible. As I mentioned earlier as well, Narendra Modi has taken a lot of positive steps towards training and development of government employees. Having seen success of B'lore, Hyd'Bad and Chennai in the ITeS sector, he is facilitating development of the same in Gujarat. Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, Gujarat has set a precedent in adopting renewable energy sources like Wind Energy and Solar Energy. The way Gujarat is adopting this technology, it will soon surpass Karnataka and Tamil Nadu in use of renewable energy. We must remember that he is ultimately human; there is only so much he can do alone. after that he needs the efforts and energies of the team under him and he has a strong track record.
The larger question is how successful can he be on the national scale where dynamics change? Even in a democracy, sometimes, a hard line is needed and Modi has been able to do that in Gujarat. Linguistic advantages, familiarity with local nuances has helped him achieve. No human being is perfect. 2002 riots, fake encounters etc are some of the factors weighing down on him. However, as I have mentioned earlier as well, post-2002, we have not seen communal riots erupting in Gujarat. On the other hand, because business has flourished well in Gujarat, the prohibition of alcohol seems very stupid. Gujarat black market of alcohol is amongst the top 3 in India.
Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj need to support Modi well. With Swamy coming in, there is a booster on the economic and legal fronts. What a lot of people including members in the Congress fail to realize that Raghuram Rajan and Swamy will enjoy more camaraderie than Chidambaram and Raghuram. Simply because their education backgrounds and outlooks have more similarities than differences. Nevertheless, the sad fact for BJP is that momentum is still a concern. The association with RSS and VHP on a national scale, earlier a strength is now a big drag for them. It was also very stupid on part of BJP to say that Food Security Bill is an election gimmick and inflationary consequences. Well they also voted in favor of the bill, hoping to cash in on the gimmick.
I think they should hope that Congress announces that Rahul Gandhi is the PM candidate of UPA-3. This will be the game changer in favor of BJP/NDA. The youth, business houses, educated class will all unanimously reject Rahul baba and UPA if this goes through. i don't think the Congress is so stupid to do this but if they do, BJP can celebrate victory in advance. Also public anger against MMS has increased so much that nominating him for the 3rd term is also a big disaster. Public will unanimously reject this option as well.
So till the time the official announcements of candidates don't go through, I am personally assuming that Chidambaram will be the PM candidate from UPA and Narendra Modi will be the PM candidate from NDA.
I don't take into account any of the opinion polls posted by various media channels because these are not like Gallop Polls where the data samples are mined through a representative electoral data set. Let us take a cursory look at different states and what can emerge
North-East: They will go more or less the same way as in the past. Barring a few aberrations due to Chinese incursions, outcome expected to be status quo.
West Bengal wants debt waivers from centre. Congress can bite the bullet here but DiDiGiri is more of a drag for UPA. The best is to leave TMC alone and the people of WB at state level will set things right.
North:
JnK is a sensitive area and very difficult to predict till the last minute; on balance status quo expected
Punjab: A change expected due to current economic situation of the state. Congress may use this opportunity to swing the situation
Haryana: Status quo expected
Rajasthan: Status quo expected
UP - Lots of things happening. No single party is good. Ummeed ki cycle has got flat tyres, BSP's elephants
have drained the tax payers. CBI and Congress will hold power here [CBI = Congress Bureau of India]
Uttarakhand: They will vote against Congress/ Coalation this time in all likelihood
Delhi: The current election holds the key. I really hope that the people of Delhi boot out Sheila Dikshit and let AAP take over. The administration that wins Delhi election will replicate itself
Rajasthan: Status quo
South:
Ktaka: Congress will emerge winner in all likelihood just as was the case in the state elections
AP: Telangana = Congress Exit; United AP = Congress - the equation is simple
TN: The coalition partner that bribes the most will get the support
Kerala: Congress/ Allies have better chances
West / Central:
Gujarat: Narendra Modi will emerge as single largest winner - undoubtedly
MP: Status quo expected
Maharashtra: Lots of Power-Play here, literally and figuratively ;)
Goa: If Parrikar plays his cards right and gets voting in favor of mining redemption, then its BJP in all likelihood.
Chattisgarh and Jharkand will be gunda-raj as usual.
As we can see, in this rudimentary glance itself, the diversity factor in India comes into play. Many politicians are still banking on the fact that the educated middle class will take election day as a welcome break. I personally foresee a very high degree of voting by educated middle class this time and this will swing.
India is changing and the change hungry India is more keen to see which ministers will hold which portfolio rather than the party itself. Narendra Modi and Swamy together can pre-empt this by getting a core committee [agree some cards have to be witheld] so that we can at least see who handles what
[Please note that the names I have mentioned here are my independent personal opinions]
Key Sectors
Finance: I would like to see Swamy in this post
Defence: UPA has a horrible track record. I personally feel that this should be handed over to at least an ex-defence head. Our politicians will be embroiled
Home Ministry: Ditto. I would like to see Sushma Swaraj in this position. Women need to progress in society and Sushma Swaraj has both the left brain intelligence and right brain empathy to handle sensitive issues. Let us not forget that she was an NCC cadet herself and when push comes to shove, she can do it.
Since latest memories stay longer, she made the mistake of walking out too often in the recent past from discussions.
Oil Ministry: Ditto - I think Yashwant Sinha should take this. The situation when he was finance minister was different. Now we need his skills here or perhaps in Corporate Affairs.
Railways: Time to get back Lalu Prasad Yadav regardless of who wins and also ensure that the IAS officer who was the right hand man of Lalu during his Railway ministry Sudhir Kumar at the helm.
Aviation: Ajit Singh has been a disaster. Praful Patel is a good project starter not finisher; but if the NDA is more progressive in thinking, it could very well hand out some portfolios to opposition based on merit. Last time NDA gave Shahnawaz Hussain this portfolio and he wrecked tax payers money big time. [Leasing airplanes at 4 times the prevailing market rates??? ]
Shipping: Please appoint somebody with a background in shipping and logistics. Last time NDA created disaster by giving this portfolio to Shatrughan Sinha who has zero shipping / logistics knowledge.
[See Im telling you - the youth in India are far more informed today and are doing their homework on who is who. Be it UPA or NDA, merely slamming the opposition won't do. The young brigade goes beyond white lies in media - they will dig out information!]
Telecom: Right now we have Zero Sibbal! Arun Jaitley should take this. There is still a lot to be done and his BCCI ventures should help this sector further
Information n Broadcasting: No suitable candidate visible from BJP. UPA can field one of their 3 musketeers
See - so many key portfolios to be filled and the names in NDA are drying up. The major challenge being their coalition partners. RSS, VHP, SS, MNS are all gundaraj people. As much as they criticize incumbents, fact is that NDA has a poor track record in key portfolios that impact the common man [some listed above]
Phew - that was a very very long post indeed for Part2. I will be sharing this on Twitter as well with some of the leaders who are active there.
The scale is still tilted in favor of UPA-3 to the extent Chidambaram is the PM candidate from UPA.
Next Update: 15th October 2012
The recipe for disaster has been spelt by the current PM, MMS; one thing is very very clear - if Rahul Gandhi is announced as the PM, candidate, UPA-3 will be a distant dream. He has disappointed the youth brigade and has already demonstrated his incompetence in the CII meet. His attempt to connect with people of UP also have been flopshows. Indian youth has changed, preferences have changed and it seems like Congress has still not woken up to that fact. If it wants to avoid a political disaster, Rahul Gandhi needs to step aside and follow his mother's footsteps.
Foot in the mouth disease has grappled Congress leaders big time. Just to highlight a few issues
Mr. Oily [Veerappan Moily] acknowledged challenges of oil imports. He went on to suggest that petrol pumps should be closed from 8pm to 8am. BS - shot down. About conservation of fuel by MPs, MLAs and their convoys, no answers. [and as anticipated, the BJP who slams every problem on UPA or the Left Groups chose to stay mum. Obviously, they also enjoy the benefits with their MP/MLA status. Well we have no shortages of hypocrites in India!]
Mr. Antony is completely clueless about whats happening at the borders. We fully understand that you are clueless but please stop shooting from the hip! Right from Nehru days, our babus have failed to acknowledge the independent talents of our armed forces. Just allow them some autonomy to resolve issues and they will do a fantastic job. If the army was given a free hand to handle the Pakistan issue instead of interference by Nehru, we would not have Pakistan / JnK challenges today.
Mr. Sharad Pawar acknowledges that we have about INR 44000 crores worth of food wastage due to improper storage facilities. That acknowledgement itself is proof of his incompetence. If in 2 terms as food and agriculture minister, you could not reduce at least half of this wastage, then you have no right to continue.
Mr. Chidambaram went on an overdrive last week, talking about various challenges. His claim is that our external debt is going to be capped at 4.8% of GDP. Outrageous; all that UPA-2 has been doing is increasing expenditure big time and ballooning government expenses. Over and above that, the Food Security Bill has come through, subsidies on mobiles, tablets etc etc are being doled out [pre-election bribes to the voters, we know] On the currency front, the only thing that is harped about is Gold. The only thing that has been spoken about is that Iran accepts payments in Rupees. BRICS bank is also fine but the first and foremost thing we need to do is agree on Currency Swaps with our major partners. It is surprising to see that a country like Japan comes back to India and agrees to treble the Currency Swap window to USD 50 Billion worth of payments.
Ideally, India should be reaching out to high trade partners like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, South Africa and create Currency Swap windows. We can accept Thai Bahts for our payments and they can accept Indian Rupees. Similarly for Chinese Remnibi, Malaysian Rinngits, South African Rands etc. By doing this, we emerging nations are internally ring-fencing ourselves against dollar strength against which all these countries are suffering as well. The whole thing boils down to 'Who will bell the cat?'
I think this is the right time to do it with the new RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. Let us wait till his announcements on 20th September in his first press conference.
However, from an elections perspective, Chidambaram [and Cngress] has played a master stroke this time. Banks and business houses welcome the new RBI chief. On the other hand with more and more subsidies being doled out, the rural and lower income groups have been targeted. As usual, the hope is that the educated urban/middle class does not vote in large numbers.
Now the other side of the fence
Narendra Modi has been slowly gaining momentum and as most reporters have rightly reported, vast majority of Indians are pro-Modi anti-BJP. The VHP tried to create a stir in Varanasi but couldn't gather scream. This is not 1993 and large swings on the basis of Hindutva won't work.
Modi's work in Gujarat is exemplary; Mundra port came up as a leading shipping terminal de-congesting Nhava Sheva and Mumbai. Over a period of time, over 40% of exports from West, Central and North India will be routed through Mundra port. Without the able guidance and empowerment by Modi, this would not have been possible. As I mentioned earlier as well, Narendra Modi has taken a lot of positive steps towards training and development of government employees. Having seen success of B'lore, Hyd'Bad and Chennai in the ITeS sector, he is facilitating development of the same in Gujarat. Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, Gujarat has set a precedent in adopting renewable energy sources like Wind Energy and Solar Energy. The way Gujarat is adopting this technology, it will soon surpass Karnataka and Tamil Nadu in use of renewable energy. We must remember that he is ultimately human; there is only so much he can do alone. after that he needs the efforts and energies of the team under him and he has a strong track record.
The larger question is how successful can he be on the national scale where dynamics change? Even in a democracy, sometimes, a hard line is needed and Modi has been able to do that in Gujarat. Linguistic advantages, familiarity with local nuances has helped him achieve. No human being is perfect. 2002 riots, fake encounters etc are some of the factors weighing down on him. However, as I have mentioned earlier as well, post-2002, we have not seen communal riots erupting in Gujarat. On the other hand, because business has flourished well in Gujarat, the prohibition of alcohol seems very stupid. Gujarat black market of alcohol is amongst the top 3 in India.
Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj need to support Modi well. With Swamy coming in, there is a booster on the economic and legal fronts. What a lot of people including members in the Congress fail to realize that Raghuram Rajan and Swamy will enjoy more camaraderie than Chidambaram and Raghuram. Simply because their education backgrounds and outlooks have more similarities than differences. Nevertheless, the sad fact for BJP is that momentum is still a concern. The association with RSS and VHP on a national scale, earlier a strength is now a big drag for them. It was also very stupid on part of BJP to say that Food Security Bill is an election gimmick and inflationary consequences. Well they also voted in favor of the bill, hoping to cash in on the gimmick.
I think they should hope that Congress announces that Rahul Gandhi is the PM candidate of UPA-3. This will be the game changer in favor of BJP/NDA. The youth, business houses, educated class will all unanimously reject Rahul baba and UPA if this goes through. i don't think the Congress is so stupid to do this but if they do, BJP can celebrate victory in advance. Also public anger against MMS has increased so much that nominating him for the 3rd term is also a big disaster. Public will unanimously reject this option as well.
So till the time the official announcements of candidates don't go through, I am personally assuming that Chidambaram will be the PM candidate from UPA and Narendra Modi will be the PM candidate from NDA.
I don't take into account any of the opinion polls posted by various media channels because these are not like Gallop Polls where the data samples are mined through a representative electoral data set. Let us take a cursory look at different states and what can emerge
North-East: They will go more or less the same way as in the past. Barring a few aberrations due to Chinese incursions, outcome expected to be status quo.
West Bengal wants debt waivers from centre. Congress can bite the bullet here but DiDiGiri is more of a drag for UPA. The best is to leave TMC alone and the people of WB at state level will set things right.
North:
JnK is a sensitive area and very difficult to predict till the last minute; on balance status quo expected
Punjab: A change expected due to current economic situation of the state. Congress may use this opportunity to swing the situation
Haryana: Status quo expected
Rajasthan: Status quo expected
UP - Lots of things happening. No single party is good. Ummeed ki cycle has got flat tyres, BSP's elephants
have drained the tax payers. CBI and Congress will hold power here [CBI = Congress Bureau of India]
Uttarakhand: They will vote against Congress/ Coalation this time in all likelihood
Delhi: The current election holds the key. I really hope that the people of Delhi boot out Sheila Dikshit and let AAP take over. The administration that wins Delhi election will replicate itself
Rajasthan: Status quo
South:
Ktaka: Congress will emerge winner in all likelihood just as was the case in the state elections
AP: Telangana = Congress Exit; United AP = Congress - the equation is simple
TN: The coalition partner that bribes the most will get the support
Kerala: Congress/ Allies have better chances
West / Central:
Gujarat: Narendra Modi will emerge as single largest winner - undoubtedly
MP: Status quo expected
Maharashtra: Lots of Power-Play here, literally and figuratively ;)
Goa: If Parrikar plays his cards right and gets voting in favor of mining redemption, then its BJP in all likelihood.
Chattisgarh and Jharkand will be gunda-raj as usual.
As we can see, in this rudimentary glance itself, the diversity factor in India comes into play. Many politicians are still banking on the fact that the educated middle class will take election day as a welcome break. I personally foresee a very high degree of voting by educated middle class this time and this will swing.
India is changing and the change hungry India is more keen to see which ministers will hold which portfolio rather than the party itself. Narendra Modi and Swamy together can pre-empt this by getting a core committee [agree some cards have to be witheld] so that we can at least see who handles what
[Please note that the names I have mentioned here are my independent personal opinions]
Key Sectors
Finance: I would like to see Swamy in this post
Defence: UPA has a horrible track record. I personally feel that this should be handed over to at least an ex-defence head. Our politicians will be embroiled
Home Ministry: Ditto. I would like to see Sushma Swaraj in this position. Women need to progress in society and Sushma Swaraj has both the left brain intelligence and right brain empathy to handle sensitive issues. Let us not forget that she was an NCC cadet herself and when push comes to shove, she can do it.
Since latest memories stay longer, she made the mistake of walking out too often in the recent past from discussions.
Oil Ministry: Ditto - I think Yashwant Sinha should take this. The situation when he was finance minister was different. Now we need his skills here or perhaps in Corporate Affairs.
Railways: Time to get back Lalu Prasad Yadav regardless of who wins and also ensure that the IAS officer who was the right hand man of Lalu during his Railway ministry Sudhir Kumar at the helm.
Aviation: Ajit Singh has been a disaster. Praful Patel is a good project starter not finisher; but if the NDA is more progressive in thinking, it could very well hand out some portfolios to opposition based on merit. Last time NDA gave Shahnawaz Hussain this portfolio and he wrecked tax payers money big time. [Leasing airplanes at 4 times the prevailing market rates??? ]
Shipping: Please appoint somebody with a background in shipping and logistics. Last time NDA created disaster by giving this portfolio to Shatrughan Sinha who has zero shipping / logistics knowledge.
[See Im telling you - the youth in India are far more informed today and are doing their homework on who is who. Be it UPA or NDA, merely slamming the opposition won't do. The young brigade goes beyond white lies in media - they will dig out information!]
Telecom: Right now we have Zero Sibbal! Arun Jaitley should take this. There is still a lot to be done and his BCCI ventures should help this sector further
Information n Broadcasting: No suitable candidate visible from BJP. UPA can field one of their 3 musketeers
See - so many key portfolios to be filled and the names in NDA are drying up. The major challenge being their coalition partners. RSS, VHP, SS, MNS are all gundaraj people. As much as they criticize incumbents, fact is that NDA has a poor track record in key portfolios that impact the common man [some listed above]
Phew - that was a very very long post indeed for Part2. I will be sharing this on Twitter as well with some of the leaders who are active there.
The scale is still tilted in favor of UPA-3 to the extent Chidambaram is the PM candidate from UPA.
Next Update: 15th October 2012
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